Races to watch as 6 states hold primaries Tuesday

NPR's Leila Fadel speaks with Jessica Taylor, editor at The Cook Political Report, about Tuesday's primaries in six states.

Transcript

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

For more on today's primaries, we turn to Jessica Taylor. She's the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report. Good morning, and welcome to the program.

JESSICA TAYLOR: Good morning. Thanks for having me.

FADEL: So we just heard there's a chance that two Democrats make it out of this primary for California governor - no Republicans. Who are you watching, and what are the odds of that happening?

TAYLOR: Well, they're not zero. But the ironic thing is that just a few months ago, Democrats were worried about being locked out of this race completely when they really didn't have any front-runners, especially after former Congressman Eric Swalwell imploded amid allegations of sexual assault and withdrew from the race. So right now, it's former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra that's leading the field. Wealthy billionaire Tom Steyer has spent about $218 million of his own money on ads and field programs, running as one of the antiestablishment - more progressive candidate. He's been backed by Bernie Sanders' organization, Our Revolution. So they're the two leading candidates for Democrats. And then Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, has been endorsed by Trump.

So right now, we're watching to see whether, again, Becerra and Steyer after - especially after Steyer spending all that money - if Steyer can get into the top two with Becerra. And Scott is right. That could really have implications for the downballot House races in California.

FADEL: OK. So let's talk about some Senate races. Democrats are looking at Iowa. Republican Joni Ernst is retiring. What will today's results tell us about each party's chance in November?

TAYLOR: National Democrats have gotten behind state Representative Josh Turek. He has a really compelling story. He's in a wheelchair from spina bifida that he got because of his father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam. So because of that, VoteVets, a progressive organization, has spent about $10 million trying to help him in this primary. His opponent, state Senator Zach Wahls, who had gone viral some years ago for a speech that he gave as a teenager defending his two moms amid a gay marriage debate, has said that shows that Turek is the establishment candidate. But national Democrats also like Turek because he's won in Trump areas before in his Council Bluffs district. So if he wins, I think that that race against Congresswoman Ashley Hinson as the GOP front-runner expected to easily win her primary - that that will be a more competitive race than it could be against Wahls, who's been backed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

FADEL: Let's talk about Montana. Republican Senator Steve Daines also said he would retire. Daines withdrew just before the filing deadline, letting his preferred successor file at the last possible moment. There's also an independent running there. What are you looking for tonight?

TAYLOR: Well, the Democratic primary is interesting because you have some of those allies of Seth Bodnar that are trying to boost a candidate to - hoping that they might withdraw from the Democratic nomination. But you also have Republicans that are backing another candidate quietly because - Randy Neal, who has said that they will not withdraw either. So this race, I think, could only become interesting and competitive if there's no Democrat on the ballot, sort of the same way that the Nebraska race is shaping up to be. Bodnar has a lot of support from former Senator Jon Tester's allies. But again, I think this is only competitive if they are able to convince Democrats to withdraw from the race, which so far, they have not been able to.

FADEL: Jessica Taylor keeping track of a lot there. She's the editor at the Cook Political Report. Thank you so much for your time.

TAYLOR: Thank you.

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