Growth in California will be spurred by an improving housing market and more job creation in 2014 according to the University of the Pacific's Business Center forecast.
Growth is projected to be below three percent this year but accelerating to three and a half percent between 2015 and 2017.
Center Director Dr. Jeff Michael says the drought could have a major impact on agricultural areas in the southern part of the valley.
"Fairly significant losses this year, in 2009 we estimated $350 million in loss agricultural output and about 6,000 jobs. Right now it looks like this year could be worse than that," Michael said.
But Michael said the loss overall might amount to less than a quarter percent of the state's economy.
And Michael said the economic recovery is moving inland to Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto and Merced with expected job growth above two percent which would exceed the state average.
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California Annual Forecast Summary
|
|
|
|
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
|
Real Gross State Product (% change)
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
3.4
|
3.6
|
3.5
|
3.3
|
|
Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change)
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
1.3
|
|
Unemployment Rate (%)
|
8.9
|
8.5
|
8.0
|
7.3
|
6.4
|
5.9
|
|
Housing Starts (thousands)
|
70.6
|
87.5
|
124.9
|
151.7
|
157.1
|
161.4
|
Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary
|
|
|
Metro Area
|
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
|
Unemployment Rate (%)
|
|
|
(% change)
|
|
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
|
|
Sacramento
|
1.6
|
2.1
|
2.3
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
8.7
|
8.1
|
7.3
|
6.5
|
5.7
|
|
|
Stockton
|
2.6
|
3.7
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
12.8
|
12.0
|
11.2
|
10.1
|
9.1
|
|
|
Modesto
|
1.7
|
2.7
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
12.9
|
12.0
|
11.3
|
10.6
|
9.8
|
|
|
Merced
|
1.7
|
3.1
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
14.9
|
14.1
|
13.3
|
12.4
|
11.4
|
|
|
Fresno
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
2.0
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
13.1
|
12.8
|
12.1
|
11.2
|
10.4
|
|
|
California
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
8.9
|
8.5
|
8.0
|
7.3
|
6.4
|
|
|
Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo counties. Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to San Joaquin, Merced, Fresno and Stanislaus counties.
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|
Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary
|
|
Metro Area
|
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
|
Unemployment Rate (%)
|
|
|
(% change)
|
|
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
|
|
San Francisco
|
3.1
|
2.6
|
2.1
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
5.5
|
5.0
|
4.7
|
4.3
|
3.8
|
|
|
San Jose
|
2.9
|
2.3
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
6.9
|
6.4
|
5.9
|
5.3
|
4.6
|
|
|
Oakland
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
1.8
|
7.4
|
6.9
|
6.5
|
5.8
|
5.1
|
|
|
Santa Cruz
|
4.4
|
0.9
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.1
|
9.2
|
8.6
|
8.0
|
7.3
|
6.7
|
|
|
Vallejo
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
2.2
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
8.3
|
8.0
|
7.6
|
6.6
|
5.7
|
|
|
California
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
8.9
|
8.5
|
8.0
|
7.3
|
6.4
|
|
|
San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda counties. San Jose MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties. Vallejo and Santa Cruz MSAs correspond to Solano and Santa Cruz counties.
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|
|
|
|
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California Economic Forecast January 2014
March 8, 2018The dwindling supply of low-priced homes in Sacramento means fewer properties are being purchased, fixed-up and then put back on the market within a 12-month period, known as flipping. About 2,200 homes were flipped in 2017, down 2 percent from 2016.
February 12, 2018Sacramento area gas prices are currently averaging around $3.16 a gallon - 45 cents above where they were a year ago. Analysts say the increase is due to higher crude oil costs and warn that prices could be 20-50 cents higher by Memorial Day.
January 1, 2018California has launched a legal marijuana marketplace. Many inside and outside the cannabis industry likened the regulation efforts to building a plane while flying it. So how bumpy will this ride be?
.jpg "In this Tuesday, July 10, 2012 photo, people walk by the recruiters at a jobs fair in the Pittsburgh suburb of Green Tree, Pa. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in four years, a hopeful sign for")
November 17, 2017California employers added nearly 32,000 jobs in October, according to state figures released today.
September 11, 2017California produced a greater volume of citrus than Florida for the first time since the end of World War II. The pest that's ravaged Florida's citrus industry serves as a cautionary tale for California growers.
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