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Poll: Props 1, 47 In Good Shape; 45, 46 Stumbling

Andrew Nixon / Capital Public Radio

Andrew Nixon / Capital Public Radio

A new Field Poll finds support for California’s two health-related statewide ballot measures is slipping – but voters continue to back the water bond and a proposal to reduce sentences for some drug and property crimes.

Conventional wisdom says a ballot measure must poll well above 50 percent to have a shot at passing. The water bond and criminal sentence reduction measures only barely top that magic majority mark in the latest Field Poll. But they’re opposed by fewer than a quarter of likely voters – and that hasn’t changed lately.

So Field’s Mark DiCamillo says Propositions 1 and 47 appear to be in good shape. “We’re not seeing big ‘no’ side campaign funding on either of these propositions. So I would say the poll measures pretty much stand on their own. They’re favored by 2-to-1, and I would expect they both have a very good chance of passage,” DiCamillo says.

The two health-related ballot measures are in much more trouble. Support for Propositions 45 and 46 has dropped by more than half over the last few months…as opponents have spent more than $100 million combined. Each measure now only has the backing of about three in 10 likely California voters.

 election 2014

Ben Adler

Capitol Bureau Chief

Capitol Bureau Chief Ben Adler first became a public radio listener in the car on his way to preschool – though not necessarily by choice. Now, he leads Capital Public Radio’s state Capitol coverage, which airs on NPR stations across California.  Read Full Bio 

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