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Slow Economic Growth Projected For Calif.

Andrew Nixon / Capital Public Radio

Arden Fair Mall in Sacramento

Andrew Nixon / Capital Public Radio

Growth in California will be spurred by an improving housing market and more job creation in 2014 according to the University of the Pacific's Business Center forecast.

Growth is projected to be below three percent this year but accelerating to three and a half percent between 2015 and 2017.

Center Director Dr. Jeff Michael says the drought could have a major impact on agricultural areas in the southern part of the valley.

"Fairly significant losses this year, in 2009 we estimated $350 million in loss agricultural output and about 6,000 jobs. Right now it looks like this year could be worse than that," Michael said.

But Michael said the loss overall might amount to less than a quarter percent of the state's economy.

And Michael said the economic recovery is moving inland to Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto and Merced with expected job growth above two percent which would exceed the state average.

 

 

California Annual Forecast Summary

 

 

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Real Gross State Product (% change)

2.4

2.3

3.4

3.6

3.5

3.3

Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change)

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.3

Unemployment Rate (%)

8.9

8.5

8.0

7.3

6.4

5.9

Housing Starts (thousands)

70.6

87.5

124.9

151.7

157.1

161.4

 

Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary

 

Metro Area

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Unemployment Rate (%)

 

(% change)

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

 

Sacramento

1.6

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

8.7

8.1

7.3

6.5

5.7

 

Stockton

2.6

3.7

2.2

2.2

1.9

12.8

12.0

11.2

10.1

9.1

 

Modesto

1.7

2.7

1.8

2.1

2.0

12.9

12.0

11.3

10.6

9.8

 

Merced

1.7

3.1

2.4

2.4

2.3

14.9

14.1

13.3

12.4

11.4

 

Fresno

1.2

1.3

2.0

2.2

2.1

13.1

12.8

12.1

11.2

10.4

 

California

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.0

1.8

8.9

8.5

8.0

7.3

6.4

 

Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo counties.  Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to San Joaquin, Merced, Fresno and Stanislaus counties.

 

Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary

Metro Area

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Unemployment Rate (%)

 

(% change)

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

 

San Francisco

3.1

2.6

2.1

1.8

1.4

5.5

5.0

4.7

4.3

3.8

 

San Jose

2.9

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.2

6.9

6.4

5.9

5.3

4.6

 

Oakland

1.3

1.4

2.2

2.2

1.8

7.4

6.9

6.5

5.8

5.1

 

Santa Cruz

4.4

0.9

1.6

1.4

1.1

9.2

8.6

8.0

7.3

6.7

 

Vallejo

2.8

2.8

2.2

2.4

2.2

8.3

8.0

7.6

6.6

5.7

 

California

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.0

1.8

8.9

8.5

8.0

7.3

6.4

 

San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties.  Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda counties.  San Jose MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties.  Vallejo and Santa Cruz MSAs correspond to Solano and Santa Cruz counties.

 

 

 

California Economic Forecast January 2014

 

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Rich Ibarra

Contributing Central Valley/Foothills Reporter

As the Central Valley correspondent, Rich Ibarra covers San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced counties, along with the foothill areas including Tuolumne and Calaveras counties. He covers politics, the economy and issues affecting the region.   Read Full Bio