Abortion rights on the ballot won't necessarily sink Republicans in GOP-led states
By
Jason Rosenbaum |
NPR
Saturday, April 27, 2024
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Missouri Republicans are campaigning to make sure voters know they don't have to split their conscience on the abortion issue this November.
Transcript
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
All voters in some red and blue states alike may have the chance to decide whether to protect abortion rights in their state constitutions. What could that mean for Republican candidates up and down the ballot, especially in states that lean red? St. Louis Public Radio's Jason Rosenbaum has more.
JASON ROSENBAUM, BYLINE: Missouri banned most abortions after Roe v. Wade fell, prompting abortion rights supporters like Keri Ingle to launch a ballot initiative to legalize the procedure.
KERI INGLE: We know how to do it. We've been very successful in initiative petition processes in the past. We are ready with boots on the ground.
ROSENBAUM: Ingle, a Democratic lawmaker from suburban Kansas City, says backers of abortion rights found hope that GOP-led states recently voted for abortion rights initiatives.
INGLE: We have seen the blueprint for how to do this in Kentucky, in Kansas, in Ohio, you know, those liberal meccas, right? Just kidding.
ROSENBAUM: The Missouri effort to legalize abortion is one of numerous abortion rights ballot initiatives circulating across the country. And people like Mallory Schwarz of Abortion Action Missouri are heartened by polls like one from Saint Louis University and YouGov, showing around a quarter of Republican voters support an initiative legalizing abortion up to fetal viability.
MALLORY SCHWARZ: There is support for this that is nonpartisan, that is across people of every background and faith background and belief system. And there is room in this campaign for all of them.
ROSENBAUM: Democrats, in particular, have speculated that strict abortion bans, especially in competitive presidential states like Arizona and Florida, could hurt Republicans. But that same poll also had Missouri Republicans winning the governor's race without too much trouble. Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe, one of three major Republican candidates seeking the office, says it's also possible the initiative may energize voters of both parties who believe the procedure is morally wrong.
MIKE KEHOE: Even if there's Missourians who say there might be some medical exceptions or exceptions for rape and incest, that, I think, if they understand how far this allows it to go, would give a lot of people, you know, pause.
ROSENBAUM: Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia-based Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball says there are plenty of polling and electoral results showing some GOP support for abortion rights. But he added that doesn't necessarily mean they're going to vote for Democratic candidates. The ability for these voters to differentiate between policies they don't like and candidates they largely agree with, Kondik says, is easier in states like Missouri with robust initiative petition processes.
KYLE KONDIK: They can place themselves on a spectrum of supporting abortion rights and say, hey, maybe I think even that this ballot issue is too permissive. However, it's closer to my position than this - the current law in Missouri, which is, again, among the most draconian in the country.
ROSENBAUM: Bryan Pyle may be one of the voters Kondik was talking about. He signed the abortion petition and will end up voting for it if it makes the ballot. But the St. Louis County resident added he plans to vote for GOP candidates in 2024, just like he did in 2016 and 2020. He just doesn't agree with Republican elected officials' opposition to legal abortion.
BRYAN PYLE: We don't need to have people take the rights from other people because they don't like it. And we should all have the right to make our own decision.
ROSENBAUM: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who, like Kehoe, is running for governor, also says he doesn't expect an abortion initiative to prompt a free fall in GOP prospects in Missouri. But he also doesn't think the impact will be nonexistent, especially in state legislative races.
JAY ASHCROFT: Maybe there are certain suburban districts, those kind of 50/50 house districts, or one or two state Senate districts, or maybe that changes the electorate enough to change who gets elected.
ROSENBAUM: Unless Ashcroft expedites the signature-counting process, Missourians will know for sure if they'll vote on abortion rights later this summer. And how Republican candidates in the fall are affected could be a barometer for how the issue could impact the 2024 election cycle across the country.
For NPR News, I'm Jason Rosenbaum in St. Louis.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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