California’s race for governor is in for a major shakeup following Swalwell’s exit

Update April 15, 11:05 a.m.: On Tuesday Governor Gavin Newsom issued a proclamation calling a special election to fill former Congressman Eric Swalwell’s East Bay seat for August 18. A primary election will take place on June 16, two weeks after the statewide primary.

Former Congressman Eric Swalwell’s exit from California’s race for governor is drastically shuffling the candidate field just weeks before counties mail primary ballots to voters on May 4. Swalwell, who also effectively resigned from Congress on Tuesday afternoon, dropped out of the race following sexual assault allegations against him reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN on Friday.

While Swalwell emerged as a frontrunner in recent months, now other Democrats are fighting for his supporters in the wake of his departure.

The two most likely to benefit are Democratic candidates billionaire Tom Steyer and former Congresswoman Katie Porter, according to California polling expert Paul Mitchell, who heads the demographics consulting firm Redistricting Partners.

“Eric Swalwell was definitely capturing a lot of progressive, MSNBC folks, older voters, kind of the anti-Trump vote, so you can see those votes going to other candidates that are kind of aligned in terms of the messaging,” said Mitchell.

Mitchell says Swalwell leaving the race means there’s a less likely chance two Republicans will be the top two voter-getters and advance following the primary, a scenario Democrats have openly feared in recent weeks.

“Democrats, at least right now, are probably relieved that they’re not gonna face two Republicans in the runoff, but they’re also very anxious about what this means for the race and where voters might coalesce in the coming days around the remaining Democratic candidates,” Mitchell added.

Another open congressional seat for California

Swalwell filed his resignation from Congress on Tuesday afternoon, which went into effect immediately. His departure from his House seat leaves California with a second congressional vacancy this year, the first being the late Republican Congressman Doug LaMalfa whose sudden death in January left his Northern California district empty.

Governor Gavin Newsom has 14 days to call a special election to fill the congressional vacancy once it becomes official. His office said it was reviewing the matter as of Monday afternoon.

Newsom could choose to fill the vacancy through a special election, or wait and do so through the general election in November.

“The problem with that is it would leave the seat empty for a few additional months. And given that the majority in the House of Representatives is so closely contested, Hakeem Jeffries and the Democrats really need that seat,” said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at UC Berkeley and USC.

Schnur added it’s more likely Newsom will elect to fill the vacancy as soon as possible, the earliest being August. California’s June primary is not an option with ballots having already been printed.

The election to replace LaMalfa will coincide with the state’s June 2 primary, with a general runoff on Aug. 4 in the event no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote.