Proposition 64, which would legalize recreational marijuana in California, has avoided a drop-off in the polls that its predecessor suffered six years ago.
In 2010, Proposition 19 held an almost ten percentage point lead in the months leading up to the election, but lost ground in late October.
Democratic political consultant Steve Maviglio says opponents that year successfully attacked the specific details of how the measure would work. However, that hasn’t happened this year.
"The vulnerability of this is how big and extensive it is," Maviglio says. "But the opposition hasn’t seized on it, because they don’t have the resources to do it."
Opponents of Proposition 64 have raised less than $2 million, compared to the more than $20 million raised by the ‘Yes’ campaign.
Maviglio says proponents of legalization are better organized this year, and they’ve written the proposition to draw in former opponents. The League of California Cities, for instance, opposed Proposition 19, but has remained neutral on the current measure.
"Cities and counties have figured out there’s ways to make money off this," says Maviglio. "There’s provisions in the initiative for them to do it, and so they’re now on board."
In 2010, President Obama opposed Proposition 19 in October, while the state Democratic Party is an active supporter of Proposition 64.
The measure leads by 17 percentage points in the latest Public Policy Institute of California poll.