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Analyst: Sanders A Long-Shot In California Primary

Jim Mone / AP

Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders, speaks during a town hall meeting, Thursday, July 2, 2015, in Rochester, Minn.

Jim Mone / AP

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders comes to California on Tuesday.

Sanders will hold a rally at the San Diego Convention Center more than two months before the state holds its June 7th primary election.

Geoffrey Skelley, political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says Sanders has performed well in states where he’s invested the most time.

"If he has a bit of time to sort of set up his campaign, spend a lot of time working a state, he’s usually shown an ability to do better," Skelley says. "For instance, Michigan. He was able to really cultivate that state and ended up narrowly pulling out a win there."

Skelley still thinks Sanders is a long-shot in California due to the state's demographics. Polls show the Vermont senator trails his opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, by double digits.

"Large non-white electorates in the Democratic primary so far, he has not won," Skelley says.

Even with a big win in California, Skelley says Sanders has likely fallen too far behind Clinton to win the nomination.

"The only way the delegate math really works out for him is if he can somehow win every state by a really large margin," Skelley says. "That’s basically an impossibility, unless something crazy happens."