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Study: Majority Minority Electorate In California By 2016



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(Sacramento, CA)
Wednesday, January 15, 2014

“For the first time, California will have what we’re terming a ‘majority minority’ electorate,’” says Mindy Romero of the California Civic Engagement Project at UC Davis.

Romero's study found that non-Latino whites will fall below 50% of the state’s eligible voters in two years. She says the number of Latino voters will grow.  

“Currently they’re about 23% of California’s vote. But by 2040, if we keep rates the same given the population changes, they will be about 33% of the state’s vote.”

~Mindy Romero, California Civic Engagement Project

Romero says Latinos and Asians combined are projected to comprise just over 50% of California’s voters by 2040.

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She says as the make-up of California’s voting electorate changes, the interests of its new members may push the state’s political structure to adjust priorities.

An aging population means fewer 18 to 24 year olds will be voting in California.

“The youth vote in California will be declining steadily, at least until 2032,” says Romero.

Young people historically register and turnout to vote at rates lower than the rest of the electorate.  

“If everyone voted at the same rates, youth actually would have a higher share of the vote than older Californians. And if their rates don’t change, given projected changes in population the decline in their eligible voter population, they’re going to actually decline in their proportion of the vote itself.”

You can hear more about Romero's study from her appearance today on Insight with Beth Ruyak.

Read full study here.

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