Patterns of public health policy around the coronavirus are beginning to repeat themselves.
When the COVID-19 pandemic reached the U.S. eight months ago, state officials urged Californians to stay home to prevent the potential spread of the virus. It was intended as a temporary measure, and for a moment it appeared to be working. My early reporting focused on the details of the lockdown, followed by evidence that California was “crushing the curve” and keeping case numbers down.
Eight months later, we’re essentially back where we started. California officials have instituted a new curfew that bans social gatherings between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. The majority of counties are in the most restrictive category in the state’s color-coded reopening system. Cases and hospitalizations are on the rise, and officials fear holiday gatherings will only exacerbate this trend.
As CapRadio’s health care reporter, it’s my job to send a message to our listeners: it’s not over yet.
Vaccine development offers some hope of protection in the coming months, but it won’t be universally available at first, and it won’t put an immediate end to virus transmission. As we head toward the end of 2020, I’ve been checking in with doctors, public health officials, academics and community members about their fears and concerns.
Here are some of the biggest issues that have sprung up in my reporting over the last two months:
Gatherings are still a major problem.
Health officials in Sacramento County say the main reason for the ongoing spread of the virus is that people are continuing to gather indoors with friends and family.
The state put out guidelines this fall asking people to only socialize outdoors, and with limitations on who they invite. But experts are worried that guidance will go by the wayside during the colder months.
Back in September, UC Berkeley epidemiologist John Swarzberg described a worst-case scenario to me:
“That we loosen up society too quickly in terms of businesses and other activities and that results in another surge in early to mid- November, and the holiday travel of Thanksgiving and Christmas exacerbate that problem greatly … that would portend a very bad prognosis for 2021.”
So far, this has proven to be true. California’s testing positivity rate is now 6.2%, up from just 2.8% in October.
Flu season poses a dual threat to health care systems.
As a health care reporter, I write a story every year urging people to get a flu shot. This year, that message took on new urgency.
“While we continue to grapple with COVID-19, we run the risk of further straining our already-taxed health care infrastructure if we don’t take simple and effective precautions against the spread of influenza,” Los Angeles-based physician Dr. Jack Chao told me.
It can be difficult for emergency room staff to tell COVID-19 and influenza apart, given that some of the symptoms are similar. And both types of patients require staff to wear personal protective equipment, which some nurses say is still in short supply.
I’m also hearing from hospitals that staff are in short supply. Normally that can be fixed by recruiting out-of-state health care workers, but many of the national nursing registries are already strained due to COVID-19 surges all over the country.
Vaccine adherence will be a challenge.
Looking ahead, I’m going to try to learn more about Sacramento County’s strategy for distributing COVID-19 vaccines once they become available.
Rachel Allen, with Sacramento County’s immunization assistance program, says distributing the flu vaccine is a “dry run” for a COVID-19 shot.
“We are using every one of our clinics, whether they’re walk-up or drive-through … to make it accommodate what we’re going to need for a COVID vaccine,” she said.
But some doctors already foresee a challenge with getting patients to accept the new vaccine once it’s available. Dr. Beatrice Tetteh, a pediatrician in Sacramento’s Pocket neighborhood who largely sees Medi-Cal patients, says she’s already talking to families about the shot.
“There are people that believe that vaccines are unnecessary, that our immune systems are strong enough on their own,” she said. “And one conversation I often have with parents about this is letting them know that vaccines are the way that our immune systems get trained to be strong ... I think that there's going to still be people that will not want to do a COVID-19 vaccine.”
This week, I’ll be asking doctors how they plan to communicate with vaccine-hesitant patients about the COVID-19 shot. I’ll also be working with CapRadio’s Sarah Mizes-Tan to learn more about how beliefs about vaccines vary between different cultural communities. While this pandemic is taking a toll on everyone, we will continue to provide all the essential information you need to get through it. Stay safe.
Sammy Caiola Health Care Reporter |