President Obama's second inaugural address was widely perceived as
a throwing down of the gauntlet in how it framed his progressive
faith in government and challenged his Republican political
opponents in any number of ways.
Given that, expect to see more glove-throwing Tuesday as the
president delivers the first State of the Union speech of his
second term.
With no more presidential elections to face, Obama seems to be
taking advantage of that newfound freedom to speak more forcefully
on his second-term agenda items, like immigration overhaul, gun
control and climate change, than he generally did during his first
term.
So expect to see that increased forcefulness on display during his
speech to a joint session of Congress.
Obama himself has acknowledged that he has decided to be
unapologetic about his priorities. In remarks he made to House
Democrats last week at their retreat, he said:
"Even as I think it's important to be humbled by the privilege of
this office and the privilege of serving in the United States
Congress, even as it's important not to read too much into any
particular political victory - because this country is big, it is
diverse, it is contentious, and we don't have a monopoly on wisdom,
and we need to remember that - despite all those things, I think
it's also important for us to feel confident and bold about the
values we care about and what we stand for.
"And I tried to do that in my inauguration speech, and I'm hoping
that we all do that over the next four years."
"His sense of self-confidence is palpable since he was re-elected,"
said Michael Waldman, president of the Brennan Center for Justice
at New York University School of Law, in an interview. "And the
American people like that," said Waldman, who was a speechwriter in
former President Bill Clinton's White House. "They want a happy
warrior. They want to see their president in the fight with a
smile."
So, on what issues will Obama likely assert his "confident and
bold" vision for the nation? Here are four.
1) The Economy
The economy remains the most important issue to voters, judging by
what they tell pollsters.
With the economy facing an immediate threat from the very real
possibility of sharp cuts in federal spending starting March 1 from
what's known in Washington as sequestration, Obama will no doubt
again encourage lawmakers to reach an agreement before any more
damage is done. Just the threat of the sequester is thought to have
contributed to the economy shrinking in the fourth quarter of
2012.
Obama has advocated that the sequester be replaced by a package of
spending cuts and tax reforms that would raise more revenue in part
by closing tax loopholes, especially those benefiting taxpayers at
the top of the income ladder. Republicans have said any proposals
that include new revenue are dead on arrival.
Expect Obama to insist, as he has in the past, that it's essential
that any approach to fiscal responsibility be "balanced," with
spending cuts and new revenue both contributing to cutting
deficits. And expect him to indicate that he will give no ground on
this. Spending cuts alone, he has said, will lead to reductions in
the kinds of federal spending on education and research that would
eventually limit economic growth.
Obama is sure to frame the issue not just in fairness terms but
also as essential to faster economic growth. As he told House
Democrats last week:
"Over the next four years, as I work with this caucus and every
caucus, the question I will ask myself on every item, every issue
is, 'Is this helping to make sure that everybody has got a fair
shot and everybody is doing their fair share, and everybody is
playing by the same rules?' Because I believe that is a growth
agenda - not just an equity agenda, not just a fairness agenda -
that is a growth agenda. That is when we have grown fastest.
"And that means that what you'll hear from me next week, I'm going
to be talking about making sure that we're focused on job creation
here in the United States of America."
2) Immigration
Obama promised during his re-election campaign to make overhaul of
the nation's Immigration laws a second-term priority. He has
expressed support for a recently unveiled bipartisan Senate package
of principles that would provide a path to legalization for many
undocumented immigrants now in the country.
The Republican leadership's choice of Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida
to present the GOP response may indicate that they expect
immigration to be a key part of the president's speech, and they
want to be a party to framing the debate before the American
people. Rubio, a Cuban-American, was among the bipartisan group of
senators who unveiled the recent immigration proposal. Thus, he
puts an immigration-friendly face on a party that has shown
weakness in that area.
3) Gun Control
After the Newtown, Conn., elementary school massacre, Obama made
increased gun control a priority. At the top of the list is his
push for universal background checks, regardless of whether weapons
are bought from retailers - which now must do checks - or at gun
shows, where buyers need not be checked. Other priorities are a
reinstatement of the assault weapons ban and a prohibition on
high-capacity gun magazines that can hold anywhere from 20 rounds
to 100 rounds.
"The majority of responsible gun owners recognize we cannot have a
situation in which 20 more of our children, or 100 more of our
children, or 1,000 more of our children are shot and killed in a
senseless fashion, and that there are some common-sense steps that
we can take and build a consensus around," Obama told the House
Democrats. "And we cannot shy away from taking those steps."
4) Climate Change
Obama's mention of global warming in his second inaugural was
viewed as significant by many observers. It was a first-term
priority that had gotten sidetracked by other major agenda items,
such as the battle to pass the Affordable Care Act.
With Republicans now controlling the House, and the specter of
Republican filibusters in a Senate run by Democrats, it's unlikely
Obama could get through Congress legislation that would
significantly reduce U.S. carbon emissions.
But in his inauguration, Obama couched the issue in terms of
religious faith and generational equity. Thus, even though he
doesn't appear to have the votes in Congress, he will have the
bully pulpit to speak on an issue that could come to dwarf even the
U.S. economy and jobs in terms of its importance to the average
American.
Which leads to an important point. A State of the Union address
isn't necessarily a laundry list of what is legislatively doable.
It also has been used by presidents to describe a vision.
"It's a mistake in writing one of these speeches to think about
what could only pass the Congress in the next six months," Waldman
said. "The purpose really is to lay out an agenda for the country
and not just a legislative agenda."
For his part, Waldman hopes Obama follows up on the reference the
president made in his second inauguration speech to the nation's
voting system, which finds so many Americans "forced to wait for
hours to exercise the right to vote."
"This would be a great time for him to talk at greater length about
that, about what he thinks ought to happen," said Waldman of the
Brennan Center, for which voting rights is a key issue for research
and advocacy.
We'll know Tuesday evening whether the president decided to include
the voting-rights issue, too.
But consider this: Obama knows that he is probably at the height of
his second-term power right now, and with each passing month the
shadow of lame-duckness looms larger over his presidency.
By the time of his 2014 State of the Union, more attention may be
on congressional midterm elections than on the president's agenda.
See
In his State of Union address on Tuesday, President Obama set
forth a sweeping vision for his second term, tackling not only
monumental issues such as entitlement and tax reform but also
everyday ones like raising the minimum wage and providing universal
preschool.
Coming off an inaugural address that many saw as a powerful
embrace of a liberal agenda, President Obama opened the speech with
a nod to bipartisanship.
"The American people don't expect government to solve every
problem," he said. "They don't expect those of us in this chamber
to agree on every issue. But they do expect us to put the nation's
interests before party."
Obama asked Republicans to think about the good of the country
as they work on comprehensive immigration reform and as they work
toward avoiding deep spending cuts scheduled to take effect in
March.
But despite those appeals, the president also had some harsh
words for the GOP.
Perhaps the most pointed moment happened when he said: "Now,
most of us agree that a plan to reduce the deficit must be part of
our agenda. But let's be clear: deficit reduction alone is not an
economic plan." When he talked about climate change, he said if
Congress doesn't act, he would use executive action "to protect
future generations."
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio delivered the Republican response,
harking back to the 2012 presidential campaign.
"More government isn't going to help you get ahead," Rubio
said. "It's going to hold you back. More government isn't going to
create more opportunities. It's going to limit them."
Perhaps in an effort to pre-empt that criticism, Obama said
that the new initiatives outlined in his speech would not add to
the deficit.
"It's not a bigger government we need, but a smarter
government that sets priorities and invests in broad-based growth,"
he said.
As expected, Obama also announced that he was pulling 34,000
American troops from Afghanistan, and he also pushed for more
stringent gun control laws.
Without a doubt, the section on gun control was Obama's
emotional climax.
Obama used two victims of gun violence in the House chambers
to drive his point home. First he told the story of Hadiya
Pendleton, the 15-year-old majorette gunned down just a mile from
Obama's house in Chicago.
He said that the only thing he asks of Congress is that they
take a vote on measures that would tighten gun laws.
"Hadiya's parents, Nate and Cleo, are in this chamber tonight,
along with more than two dozen Americans whose lives have been torn
apart by gun violence," he said. "They deserve a vote."
Both sides of aisles came to their feet and clapped. Obama,
slowed his cadence and raised his voice.
"Gabby Giffords deserves a vote," he said. "The families of
Newtown deserve a vote. The families of Aurora deserve a vote. The
families of Oak Creek, and Tucson, and Blacksburg, and the
countless other communities ripped open by gun violence - they
deserve a simple vote."
We live blogged the address, so if you want a blow by blow,
keep reading. If you don't feel like reading all of that, here's a
quick recap of the initiatives proposed by the president in his
speech:
- Obama proposed comprehensive immigration reform as well as
comprehensive tax and entitlement reforms.
- On climate change Obama suggested a "bipartisan,
market-based solution." If not, he said, he'll act through
executive actions.
- On Afghanistan, he's pulling 34,000 U.S. troops out within a
year.
- He's proposing a national universal preschool program.
- Obama wants Congress to raise the federal minimum wage to $9
an hour and tie further raises to inflation.
- The president also asked Congress to simply take a vote on
measures that would tighten gun laws.
- Obama proposed a commission that would take a look at the
"voting experience in America."
- On the economy, Obama sent a message to Congress that
allowing sequestration to go through would be a mistake. And he
defiantly told Republicans: "Deficit reduction alone is not an
economic plan."
- Obama also proposed a free trade agrement with the European
Union.
Our Earlier Updates from
Tuesday:
Update at 10:44 p.m. ET. A Personal
Speech:
Rubio has just wrapped up his response. In many ways, this was
a deeply personal speech.
On at least four occasions, Rubio brought his experience into
play. He used it to talk about higher education and Medicare. But
perhaps most significantly, he used his experience to combat the
attack that the GOP only cares about rich people.
He said:
"Mr. President, I still live in
the same working class neighborhood I grew up in. My neighbors
aren't millionaires. They're retirees who depend on Social Security
and Medicare. They're workers who have to get up early tomorrow
morning and go to work to pay the bills. They're immigrants, who
came here because they were stuck in poverty in countries where the
government dominated the economy.
"The tax increases and the deficit
spending you propose will hurt middle class families. It will cost
them their raises. It will cost them their benefits. It may even
cost some of them their jobs.
"And it will hurt seniors because
it does nothing to save Medicare and Social Security."
Update at 10:34 p.m. ET. The Republican
Response:
Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is now delivering the Republican
response. As we said earlier, Rubio is hitting Obama on taxes and
spending.
Bigger government and more taxes are not the solution, says
Rubio.
"Raising taxes won't create private sector jobs. And there's
no realistic tax increase that could lower our deficits by almost
$4 trillion," says Rubio, who is delivering his speech standing up.
"That's why I hope the President will abandon his obsession with
raising taxes and instead work with us to achieve real growth in
our economy."
Update at 10:18 p.m. ET. Obama
Concludes:
Obama has concluded his State of the Union address.
Update at 10:06 p.m. ET. Voting
Commission:
As he previewed in his inaugural address, Obama is now
convening a "non-partisan commission to improve the voting
experience in America."
"When any Americans - no matter where they live or what their
party - are denied that right simply because they can't wait for
five, six, seven hours just to cast their ballot, we are betraying
our ideals," he said.
Update at 9:57 p.m. ET. Targeted
Killings:
Without mentioning drones or his administration's targeted
killing program, which have taken center stage the past week as
Obama's secretary of defense nominee, Chuck Hagel, went through
hearings, Obama defends his counterterrorism record.
He said:
"That is why my Administration has
worked tirelessly to forge a durable legal and policy framework to
guide our counterterrorism operations. Throughout, we have kept
Congress fully informed of our efforts. I recognize that in our
democracy, no one should just take my word that we're doing things
the right way. So, in the months ahead, I will continue to engage
with Congress to ensure not only that our targeting, detention, and
prosecution of terrorists remains consistent with our laws and
system of checks and balances, but that our efforts are even more
transparent to the American people and to the world."
Update at 9:53 p.m. ET. Federal Minimum
Wage:
Here's a big headline: Obama is proposing to raise the federal
minimum wage to $9.00 an hour. At the moment that's at $7.25 an
hour.
"This single step would raise the incomes of millions of
working families," he said. "It could mean the difference between
groceries or the food bank; rent or eviction; scraping by or
finally getting ahead."
Not only should it be $9 an hour, said Obama, but it should be
tied to inflation, an idea "that Gov. Romney and I actually agreed
on last year."
Update at 9:49 p.m. ET. Immigration:
As expected, Obama has called for comprehensive immigration
reform. He essentially stuck to the same principles - path to
citizenship, more border security, pay back taxes - that he
announced during a speech in January.
Update at 9:42 p.m. ET. Universal
Pre-School:
Obama has just introduced a program proposal we hadn't heard
much about: Universal pre-school.
"In states that make it a priority to educate our youngest
children, like Georgia or Oklahoma, studies show students grow up
more likely to read and do math at grade level, graduate high
school, hold a job, and form more stable families of their own,"
Obama said. "So let's do what works, and make sure none of our
children start the race of life already behind. Let's give our kids
that chance."
ABC News reports the White House did not put a price tag on
the program, but it will be included in Obama's budget.
"The idea, however, is to give state's financial support for
programs designed to ensure all low- and moderate-income children
have access to quality preschool. Most of the cost would ultimately
be paid for by the states," ABC reports.
In a fact-sheet released by the White House, the program is
described as a national initiative.
Update at 9:36 p.m. ET. On Climate
Change:
"For the sake of our children and our future, we must do more
to combat climate change," President Obama says, adding that it's
time to heed the "overwhelming judgement of science."
Obama says that the United States can stem climate change
through a "bipartisan, market-based solution."
But then he issues an ultimatium that made Speaker Boehner
cringe.
"If Congress won't act soon to protect future generations, I
will," he said. "I will direct my Cabinet to come up with executive
actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution,
prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and
speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy."
Update at 9:24 p.m. ET. A Balanced
Approach:
Echoing what he has said throughout the fiscal cliff
negotiations, Obama says that the deficit must be cut through a
balanced approach of spending cuts and tax increases.
"Most Americans - Democrats, Republicans, and Independents -
understand that we can't just cut our way to prosperity," he said.
"They know that broad-based economic growth requires a balanced
approach to deficit reduction, with spending cuts and revenue, and
with everybody doing their fair share. And that's the approach I
offer tonight."
One of the pieces of that equation is Medicare, he said, and
he's open to "additional reforms from both parties, so long as they
don't violate the guarantee of a secure retirement."
Another piece of that equation is "comprehensive tax reform."
Both of those pieces will be hard and "none of us will get 100
percent of what we want," Obama said, before returning to his call
for bipartisanship.
He said:
"Let's set party interests aside,
and work to pass a budget that replaces reckless cuts with smart
savings and wise investments in our future. And let's do it without
the brinksmanship that stresses consumers and scares off investors.
The greatest nation on Earth cannot keep conducting its business by
drifting from one manufactured crisis to the next. Let's agree,
right here, right now, to keep the people's government open, pay
our bills on time, and always uphold the full faith and credit of
the United States of America. The American people have worked too
hard, for too long, rebuilding from one crisis to see their elected
officials cause another."
Update at 9:22 p.m. ET. Nation Before
Party:
Before going into a critique of the large spending cuts
scheduled to take effect in March, President Obama continued to
riff on the theme of working together.
He said:
"The American people don't expect
government to solve every problem. They don't expect those of us in
this chamber to agree on every issue. But they do expect us to put
the nation's interests before party. They do expect us to forge
reasonable compromise where we can. For they know that America
moves forward only when we do so together; and that the
responsibility of improving this union remains the task of us
all."
Update at 9:15 p.m. ET. Opens With Nod To
Bipartisanship:
After an inaugural speech that many called a unabashed embrace
of a progressive agenda, President Obama opens his address alluding
to bipartisanship.
"Fifty-one years ago, John F. Kennedy declared to this Chamber
that 'the Constitution makes us not rivals for power but partners
for progress...It is my task,' he said, 'to report the State of the
Union - to improve it is the task of us all,'" Obama said.
He went on to say that the wars are coming to an end and the
economy is healing.
"Together, we have cleared away the rubble of crisis, and can
say with renewed confidence that
Update at 9:10 p.m. ET. President Of The United
States:
Introduced by the House Sergeant at Arms, President Obama is
now making his way into the House chambers. As is traditional, this
is where all the glad-handing happens.
In fact, some lawmakers stay in their seat all day in order to
get some face-and-camera time with the president.
Update at 8:53 p.m. ET. Gavelled Into
Order:
House Speaker John Boehner has just gavelled the House into
order. Legislators have filed into the House chamber.
Television images showed former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and
her husband Mark Kelley sitting in the chamber wearing green
ribbons in honor of those who died in the Newtown school
shootings.
Update at 8:38 p.m. ET. How Long Are These
Things?
Surely, there are some out there who will wonder, "How long
until we get back to the coverage of the California manhunt?"
The American Presidency Project at the University of
California Santa Barbara has the answer. It'll probably be about an
hour.
Most presidents have kept to it about 50 minutes. All of
President Clinton's addresses, however, went over an hour. His 2000
address went to 1 hour and 28 minutes.
Obama's longest speech was in 2010, when he spoke for an hour
and nine minutes.
Update at 8:28 p.m. ET. Plenty Of
Bipartisanship:
In addition to Rubio's GOP response, Sen. Rand Paul from
Kentucky will deliver the Tea Party response.
As you might expect, he will take a less traditional route,
suggesting that there is plenty of bipartisanship in
Washington.
Rand will say:
"It is often said that there is
not enough bipartisanship up here, that is not true. In fact, there
is plenty. Both parties have been guilty of spending too much, of
protecting their sacred cows, of backroom deals in which everyone
up here wins, but every taxpayer loses. It is time for a new
bipartisan consensus. It is time Democrats admit that not every
dollar spent on domestic programs is sacred. And it is time
Republicans realize that military spending is not immune to waste
and fraud."
Update at 8:17 p.m. ET. Steven Chu Will Be Designated
Survivor:
CNN's Jake Tapper tweets:
"Energy Sec'y Chu will be the Cabinet member not to attend the
SOTU in one of the most uncomfortable and macabre US gov't
traditions."
PBS has a great piece about the tradition. Attorney General
Eric Holder was the Obama administration's first designated
survivor and in 2012 Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack was the
successor in case of a devastating event in the Capitol.
Chu is the outgoing energy secretary and he's also a Nobel
prize winner. Our friend Frank called him "one of Obama's most
intriguing choices."
Update at 8:08 p.m. ET. Ted Nugent Will
Attend:
One of the strangest stories tonight is that Ted Nugent, the
rock musician, will attend the State of the Union.
According to The Washington Post, he will be Rep. Steve
Sockman's guest.
Now, if you remember back in April of 2012, the Secret Service
gave Nugent a talking to after he appeared to threaten the
president's life.
The Post reports that Nugent, however, has promised to behave
and not bring any weapons.
NBC News' Luke Russert tweeted that he saw Nugent walking into
the Capitol "with jeans, camo boots, black button down and brown
blazer - no tie."
Update at 7:44 p.m. ET. Obama
Preparing:
Organizing for Action, the non-profit set up to promote the
White House's legislative agenda, just tweeted this photograph of
the president preparing his State of the Union speech.
The photograph shows Obama with outgoing speechwriter Jon
Favreau on his left and his new speechwriter Cody Keenan on his
right.
This will be Keenan's first big test.
White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said during a press
briefing last week that Keenan had taken the lead for this speech
and "will be getting a higher profile in the weeks to come."
"These are speeches that the President takes very seriously,"
Carney said. "He's a writer himself, so he engages at a very deep
level on the framing of a speech, on the writing of it and the
editing of it and the shaping of it."
Earlier today, Pete Souza, the White House's official
photographer, tweeted a picture showing Obama conferring with first
lady Michelle Obama and her chief of staff in the White House's
colonnade
Update at 7:33 p.m. ET. Free Enterprise Is Path To
Middle Class:
In his response to President Obama, Rubio will argue that a
free enterprise system without Washington interference creates a
stronger middle class.
"Presidents in both parties - from John F. Kennedy to Ronald
Reagan - have known that our free enterprise economy is the source
of our middle class prosperity," Rubio will say, according to
excerpts released by his office. "But President Obama? He believes
it's the cause of our problems."
He'll go on to say:
"The tax increases and the deficit
spending you propose will hurt middle class families. It will cost
them their raises. It will cost them their benefits. It may even
cost some of them their jobs. And it will hurt seniors because it
does nothing to save Medicare and Social Security. So Mr.
President, I don't oppose your plans because I want to protect the
rich. I oppose your plans because I want to protect my
neighbors."
Update at 7:23 p.m. ET. Troop
Withdrawals:
As Mark told us over at the Two-Way, the Associated Press has
already reported that one of President Obama's big announcements
will be that 34,000 U.S. troops will be back home from Afghanistan
within a year.
"That's about half the U.S. forces currently serving there,
and marks the next phase in the administration's plans to formally
finish the war by the end of 2014," the AP reports.
Other outlets have reported:
- "The president is also expected to announce his intention to
begin negotiations on a free trade agreement with the 27-member
European Union." (New York Times)
- "In his address, the president will again discuss his plans
to avoid the automatic cuts - known as the sequester - with what he
calls a more balanced approach of more targeted cuts and spending,
and requiring the wealthy "to pay their fair share," according to
the talking points." (Washington Post)
As we've noted, Obama is also expected to renew his calls for
more stringent gun control laws and new legislation that provides a
path to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented
immigrants in the Untied States.
Update at 7:01 p.m. ET. 'Our Unfinished
Task':
According to excerpts released by the White House, President
Obama will focus on the "unfinished task" of restoring America's
middle class.
The president will say:
"It is our generation's task,
then, to reignite the true engine of America's economic growth - a
rising, thriving middle class.
"It is our unfinished task to
restore the basic bargain that built this country - the idea that
if you work hard and meet your responsibilities, you can get ahead,
no matter where you come from, what you look like, or who you
love.
"It is our unfinished task to make
sure that this government works on behalf of the many, and not just
the few; that it encourages free enterprise, rewards individual
initiative, and opens the doors of opportunity to every child
across this great nation of ours."
Obama will also say that even
though he is suggesting new proposals, they will not "increase our
deficit by a single dime."
"It's not a bigger government we need, but a smarter
government that sets priorities and invests in broad-based growth,"
Obama will say.
